Forecasting agents’ reliability depends on when to retrieve, reason, defer to a market prior, or use a historical analog, per ForecastBench-style tests.
Read the original at arxiv.org→arXiv:2609.28475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting agents increasingly combine language-model reasoning, retrieval, ensembling, and calibration, but it remains unclear when each behavior should be trusted....
Original headline: "When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing"
Coverage timeline
- Sep 25, 04:00 UTC arXiv cs.AI lead source When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing
- Sep 25, 04:00 UTC arXiv cs.AI Forecast-Dojo: Replayable Environments for Benchmarking and Training LLM Forecasting Agents